The Trump administration has identified five candidates being considered to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair next year, and the top contender is a Trump loyalist who critics say might undermine the central bank’s independence.
Pressure that President Trump has put on Powell to lower rates — and his attempts to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook — have raised concerns that investors’ doubts about the Fed’s independence might send mortgage rates higher.
Although Trump is now expected to allow Powell to serve out the remainder of his term, which ends in May, he told reporters flying with him on Air Force One Monday that he might announce his replacement before the end of the year.
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will do another round of interviews with five candidates currently on the short list, The Wall Street Journal reported.
These are candidates on the short list, and their odds of landing the job, according to $5.1 million in bets placed on Polymarket as of Tuesday:
Michelle Bowman
Michelle Bowman. A former bank executive, regulator and government consultant whose experience in Washington, D.C. includes stints at FEMA and the Department of Homeland Security, Bowman is an attorney by training who was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump in 2018. Her current term expires in 2034. Seen as a long shot by Polymarket bettors (3 percent), Bowman voted with Powell in September to cut rates by 1/4 of a percentage point, rather than the more drastic 1/2 percentage point cut advocated by Trump.
Kevin Hassett
Kevin Hassett. An economist by training, Hasset is a top adviser to President Trump who has served as the director of the National Economic Council since January and was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the first Trump administration from 2017 to 2019. Hassett has also served as a Fed senior economist, and was a Hoover Institution from 2019 to January 2025. He’s seen as the favorite to replace Powell among Polymarket bettors, who put Hassett’s odds at 36 percent Tuesday. Hassett’s critics worry that his loyalty to Trump would put the Fed’s independence at risk, Politico reports.
Rick Rieder
Rick Rieder. As a top executive at the investment firm BlackRock, Rieder is responsible for managing $2.4 trillion in assets. With degrees in finance and business, Rieder has also served as CEO of R3 Capital Partners, and head of global principal strategies at Lehman Brothers. His experience in government includes service as vice chairman and member of the Borrowing Committee for the U.S. Treasury, and as a member of the Fed’s Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets. But Rieder is not seen as a top contender (8 percent) to replace Powell on Polymarket.
Christopher Waller
Christopher Waller. Appointed to the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump near the end of his first term in office, Waller is considered a top contender to succeed Powell as chair, with wagers placed on Polymarket putting his odds of winning the job at 23 percent as of Tuesday. An economist by training, Waller had previously served as executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Waller resisted Trump’s call for a jumbo rate cut in September, joining the 11-1 vote for a smaller 1/4 of a percentage point rate cut.
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh. A lawyer by training, Warsh is a former Morgan Stanley executive who served as an economic policy adviser to George W. Bush, who appointed him to serve on the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 until 2011. Warsh is a trustee at the Group of Thirty (G30) and the Panel of Economic Advisers of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). His past experience and expertise in economic and financial policy make him the third most likely choice (18 percent) to succeed Powell, according to wagers placed on Polymarket.
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