Existing-home sales fell in March for every region of the country, but home prices hit a record high anyway.
That contradiction sits at the center of the National Association of Realtors’ March existing-home sales report. Sales dropped 3.6 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million — down 1 percent from a year ago — while the median existing-home price climbed to $408,800, a record high for the month of March and the 33rd consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.
“March home sales remained sluggish and below last year’s pace,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers.”
Lawrence Yun | Chief economist at the National Association of Realtors
The driver behind both trends is the same: inventory. With only 1.36 million homes on the market, a 4.1-month supply, competition for available listings has kept prices rising even as buyer demand softens. Yun said the market remains well short of what it would need to function normally.
“The inventory-to-sales ratio, or supply-to-demand ratio, is below historical norms,” Yun said. “An additional 300,000 to 500,000 homes for sale would help bring the market closer to normal conditions and allow consumers to make purchase decisions without feeling rushed.”
The price record is not an isolated data point. It is the compounding result of years of constrained supply. The typical homeowner has accumulated $128,100 in housing wealth over the past six years, Yun noted, a gain built on the same shortage that is locking out buyers.
“Because inventory remains limited, the median home price rose to a new record high for the month of March,” Yun said. “That price growth has helped the typical homeowner accumulate $128,100 in housing wealth over the past six years.”
The market’s trajectory prompted NAR to revise its 2026 forecast. Existing-home sales are now expected to grow 4 percent this year, a trim from the previous projection. New-home sales, previously forecast to rise 5 percent, are now expected to remain flat. The median price forecast is unchanged, with prices still projected to rise 4 percent.
“Mortgage rates have been rising, and that has led us to trim our home sales outlook for the year,” Yun said. “Even with a more modest pace of sales growth, home prices continue to steadily increase due to minimal inventory growth.”
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.18 percent in March from 6.05 percent in February, according to Freddie Mac.
The Northeast absorbed the sharpest declines. Sales there fell 8.5 percent month-over-month and 12.2 percent year-over-year, with a median price of $494,500, up 5.7 percent from March 2025. The South and West were the only two regions to post year-over-year sales gains. The West also stood apart on price: its median of $613,400 fell 1.3 percent from a year ago, the only region to record a year-over-year price decline, even as its sales held up better than the rest of the country.
The buyer composition data reflects who is finding a way into the market and who is not. First-time buyers accounted for 32 percent of March sales, down from 34 percent in February. Investors and second-home buyers made up 18 percent of transactions, up from 16 percent the prior month. Cash sales fell to 27 percent from 31 percent in February.
Properties spent a median of 41 days on the market in March, down from 47 days in February but up from 36 days in March 2025.
Affordability improved year-over-year in all four regions despite rising prices, a function of mortgage rates running higher a year ago. The West posted the largest affordability gain at 12.7 percent, followed by the South at 10 percent.
