April home sales barely budged — up just 0.2 percent from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, and flat year over year — while the median existing-home price climbed to $417,700, its 34th consecutive month of year-over-year gains, according to the National Association of Realtors. Inventory rose too, up 5.8 percent from March to 1.47 million units.
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The data describes a market that’s more fatigued than frozen. Shoppers are showing up, but they’re just not pulling triggers.
James Harris, CEO of Breezy and formerly of Million Dollar Listing, talked with Inman about what the NAR numbers mean on the ground, and why the answer looks very different depending on which market and which buyer you’re talking about.
A national number that masks a split market
Harris says the impulse to read the NAR data as a single national story misses the structural divergence now shaping the market.
“The days when almost every major metro was moving up together are behind us for now,” Harris told Inman. “Certain markets that saw aggressive appreciation during the pandemic are still working through affordability issues and excess inventory, especially in parts of the Sun Belt and secondary markets.”
The Case-Shiller Index confirmed in February that the housing slowdown has spread well beyond its Sun Belt origins. Denver, Seattle, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., now sit alongside Tampa, Phoenix and Dallas among markets posting year-over-year price declines.
Harris expects that trend to continue, not as a crash but as a realignment. Markets with constrained supply and durable long-term demand — particularly New York and parts of the Northeast — are holding. Everything else is repricing.
“Real estate has become much more hyperlocal,” Harris said. “You can no longer paint the entire country with one brush.”
What spring buyers actually look like
The buyers who are transacting this spring don’t look like 2021 buyers, according to Harris. They’re patient, deliberate and operating with leverage they didn’t have two or three years ago.
“Buyers today are simply more selective and more patient,” Harris said. “They’re analyzing properties much more carefully and negotiating harder than they were two years ago.”
Turnkey properties are pulling away from the field, and Harris says buyers are avoiding renovation exposure. Construction costs, permit delays and contractor uncertainty are all factoring into purchase decisions in ways they didn’t during the frenzy years. Properties that are move-in ready and priced correctly are still trading quickly, while everything else is sitting.
At the top end of the market, the dynamic shifts. Lifestyle remains the dominant driver for wealthy buyers. Features like privacy, security, wellness amenities and outdoor space continue to command premiums, but those buyers are largely insulated from the rate environment pinning everyone else down.
Don’t try to perfectly time the market
With mortgage rates still elevated, a significant share of would-be buyers are parked on the sidelines waiting for a meaningful drop. Harris thinks that’s a miscalculation.
“If rates do come down meaningfully, competition will likely increase immediately,” he said. “You may end up paying more for the home itself even if the rate improves slightly.”
His read on timing: Don’t try to optimize it. If the property is right and the long-term affordability is there, waiting for a fractionally better rate is a trade that buyers tend to lose.
“Historically, the best opportunities often come during periods of uncertainty, not when everyone feels comfortable again,” Harris said.
The advice tracks with the most dramatic example in recent memory: When rates collapsed to historic lows in 2020 and 2021, pent-up demand flooded back almost immediately, home prices surged and buyers who had been waiting found themselves in bidding wars they hadn’t anticipated.
The appeal of new construction
Homebuilder confidence came in stronger than expected alongside the NAR data, a result Harris says he wasn’t surprised by.
Builders have a structural advantage right now. They can offer rate buy-downs, financing incentives and a genuinely turnkey product in a market where resale sellers are largely unable to compete on those terms.
“Builders understand there’s still a major housing shortage in many parts of the country, and they also know there’s a large group of buyers waiting for the right moment to re-enter the market,” Harris said.
New construction’s appeal is partly a function of the weakness of resale. When existing homeowners won’t list because they’re locked into low mortgage rates, builders are often the only sellers with new products and room to negotiate.
What real estate agents are working with
For real estate agents, the NAR data confirm what most have already felt in their pipelines: This spring isn’t delivering the volume boost the calendar usually promises.
The bifurcation Harris describes creates real strategic complexity. An agent working with entry-level buyers faces a client base that’s deeply rate-sensitive, squeezed by insurance costs and competing for a thin slice of affordable inventory. An agent working the luxury segment is dealing with cash buyers whose calculus is driven by portfolio management and lifestyle, not monthly payments.
“Luxury buyers are far less rate-sensitive,” Harris said. “Many are paying cash or have significant liquidity, so their decisions are driven more by lifestyle, wealth preservation and long-term value.”
The agents threading both worlds are the ones pricing accurately, identifying genuinely turnkey properties, and counseling buyers out of the wait-for-the-perfect-rate posture that’s stalling deals across much of the country.
“Quality properties that are priced correctly are still trading quickly,” Harris said.
That’s as true now as it was in 2021. The difference is that the definition of “correctly” has tightened considerably.
