Homes listed during the final weeks of April are 18 percent more likely to sell above their original asking price than the yearly average — the highest likelihood of any week in the year — according to a Redfin and Home Economics analysis.
The median home-sale price is 4 percent higher for late-April listings than the yearly average, the analysis found. Those homes are also 17 percent more likely to sell within two weeks and spend about 9 percent fewer days on market than average.
The timing advantage is partly driven by reduced seller competition. There are roughly 8 percent fewer homes for sale at the end of April than at the supply peak reached in late summer, according to the analysis. As spring progresses, total inventory increases, giving buyers more options and increasing competition among sellers.
“Late April hits a sweet spot for homesellers: buyers are out in force, but the market isn’t yet flooded with competing listings,” said Aziz Sunderji, housing economist and founder of data visualization consultancy Home Economics, which co-produced the report with Redfin. “Listing in that late-April window can help generate stronger early interest and create the kind of competition that leads to faster sales and better terms.”
Regional timing varies. West Coast and Texas markets tend to peak earlier — San Jose, Seattle and Denver sellers fare best listing in late March, while San Francisco and Oakland also fall within that window. Northeast markets run later: Philadelphia and Milwaukee peak in early May, and West Palm Beach does not hit its prime window until mid-to-late June, according to the analysis.
The degree of seasonality also differs by market. Tampa is the least seasonal housing market in the country, followed by other Florida metros, along with Phoenix and Las Vegas. San Francisco ranks as the most seasonal, a pattern researchers attributed to tight supply rather than weather.
“In places like San Francisco and San Jose, where there are a lot of house hunters and limited inventory, timing matters a lot,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. “In places with more inventory, like Detroit or Columbus, [Ohio,] buyers can be more flexible, which gives sellers more flexibility, too.”
For buyers, the timing calculus is more layered. New listings peak in late spring, but buyer competition peaks then as well. Inventory continues to grow through mid-summer, and the steepest discounts, through price reductions and seller negotiations, tend to plateau in early fall, the analysis found.
The analysis draws on housing market data from 2015 to 2019 and 2023 to 2025; pandemic-era years were excluded. Researchers noted the findings reflect general trends and assume a stable market; optimal timing can shift in years marked by unexpected market conditions.
