For millions of would-be homebuyers, the math still doesn’t work.
U.S. home purchase loans fell to their lowest level in 12 years in the first quarter of 2026 and pending home sales declined for a second consecutive week, new data shows, underscoring the toll that elevated mortgage rates and home prices are taking on housing affordability.
Roughly 581,000 home purchase loans were originated from January through March 2026, down 19 percent from the previous quarter, the lowest quarterly total since early 2014, according to the Q1 2026 U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report from real estate data firm Attom. Purchase lending totaled nearly $237 billion in the first quarter, down 18 percent from the fourth quarter of 2025 and down 8 percent year over year.
The slowdown was broad. Purchase activity fell quarter over quarter in 99 percent of the 200 metros analyzed by Attom. According to Realtor.com’s analysis of the Attom data, the steepest quarterly drops in purchase activity among large metros were in St. Louis, down 43.5 percent; Rochester, New York, down 38.6 percent; Honolulu, down 16.1 percent; Boston, down 19.3 percent; and Pittsburgh, down 28.7 percent.
The only metros where purchase activity did not fall were Yuma, Arizona, up 28.6 percent, and Tucson, Arizona, up 5.9 percent, according to Attom.
On the demand side, pending home sales fell 1.5 percent from a week earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ending May 24, the second straight decline after four weeks of gains. Mortgage-purchase applications dropped to their lowest level since early April, according to Redfin. The median monthly housing payment climbed to $2,637 at a 6.51 percent average rate, the highest level in 11 months.
The daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a 10-month high of 6.75 percent last week before easing to 6.61 percent on May 27, according to Mortgage News Daily. Redfin attributed the recent rate increase to several factors, including the ongoing Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, AI-driven inflation and Fed officials signaling the possibility of rate hikes.
The median sale price rose 2.2 percent year over year to $398,768 for the four weeks ending May 24, according to Redfin. Active inventory stood at roughly 1.49 million homes, with months of supply at 3.4, still below the four to five months considered a balanced market.
