Pending home sales are at their highest level in nearly four years, but the numbers tell a more complicated story for agents on the ground, according to new Redfin data.
Pending sales rose 7.7 percent year over year on a seasonally adjusted basis during the four weeks ending May 3, the strongest reading since September 2022, driven by a brief dip in mortgage rates and inventory near a five-year high, according to Redfin.
The weekly average 30-year fixed interest rate fell to 6.23 percent, down from a six-month high of 6.46 percent two weeks earlier, pulling the median monthly housing payment down 2.2 percent year over year to $2,606.
But the buyers coming off the sidelines aren’t exactly fighting over homes. Just 26.4 percent of homes sold above list price, the lowest share for this time of year in at least five years, and the average sale-to-list price ratio slipped to 98.7 percent, down from 99 percent a year ago.
The typical home spent 43 days on market, three days longer than a year ago. Nearly 18.8 percent of active listings carried a price drop.
Supply is part of the story: At 3.5 months, inventory remains below the four-to-five months often considered a balanced market, but it’s climbing. Redfin suggested the surge in pending sales may reflect a late-arriving spring season rather than a sustained shift, meaning the window for sellers could be narrower than the headline numbers imply.
