Some of the nation’s top economists just doubled their inflation forecast.
Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6 percent in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters released Friday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
That’s up from an estimate of 2.7 percent in the previous survey, before U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran sent energy prices soaring and upended price forecasts across the board.
How we got here
The most recent April CPI report had already signaled trouble: headline inflation was 3.8 percent annually, the highest reading in nearly three years.
Energy prices jumped 3.8 percent in a single month, accounting for more than 40 percent of the headline gain. Food prices climbed 0.5 percent, while shelter costs, which had been showing some signs of easing, ticked back up 0.6 percent. The producer price index told a similar story. Annual wholesale inflation hit 6 percent in April.
Then the Survey of Professional Forecasters arrived Friday morning and raised the stakes further. For the full year, the panel now projects headline CPI at 3.5 percent and core at 2.9 percent, up from estimates of 2.6 percent for both metrics in the prior survey.
Are rate hikes on the way?
For the residential real estate market, the implications are direct. Mortgage rates have stayed elevated through 2025 and into 2026 on the expectation that the Fed would need to hold rates steady. That calculation now looks conservative.
The Fed cut rates three times in 2025, then paused across the final three meetings chaired by Jerome Powell. With inflation accelerating, traders raised the odds of a rate hike by year-end to roughly 30 percent to 40 percent following the April CPI report, according to CME Group data.
Kevin Warsh, confirmed as the new Federal Reserve chair by the Senate this week, has been viewed by some housing experts as more dovish on rates, meaning he might favor lowering them to stimulate the economy. The inflation data makes that preference harder to act on. His fellow policymakers have been signaling a hold with a lean toward hikes if conditions worsen.
“Given that inflation is heading in the wrong direction and the labor market is holding up, it’s very unlikely that the Fed will be able to lower interest rates any time soon, and it’s possible that we may start pricing in rate hikes for next year,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, told CNBC.
What it means for real estate agents
High inflation and high rates are a brutal combination for the homebuyers that real estate agents are trying to help. Monthly payment, already the dominant factor in purchase decisions, gets squeezed from both sides by elevated mortgage rates that won’t come down until the Fed gains confidence in inflation and rising prices for food, energy, and housing.
The lock-in effect, which has suppressed listing inventory, may also not ease in a high-rate environment. Sellers sitting on low mortgage rates have less incentive to list when the rate environment doesn’t improve and more reason to wait if they believe relief is coming eventually.
What the second half of 2026 looks like for the housing market may depend almost entirely on whether the Iran conflict cools, energy prices stabilize and the new Fed chair finds room to act. Right now, the professional forecasters aren’t betting on it.
